Crunching Numbers

This is the time of year when - as Rural Dean - I have to collect together what are called 'The Yellow Forms'. These are basically lists of the numbers of people that attended churches during the previous year - in this case 2008. Bet you didn't know we had to do a count each week did you? Well, we do, and those figures are used for a variety of statistical purposes, not least of which factors into our Share payments...

The (relatively) good news is that we had a very slight rise in our numbers for 2008, as against, 2007. not so much that we want to go shouting from the rooftops, but - hey - its better than the numbers going down the tubes isn't it!!

Numbers and statistics are a bit of an interest of mine, as many will have realised - I will often quote surveys or polls or statistics in Sunday sermons. There's an old adage that 'you can prove anything with statistics' - which although not always strictly true, does have a certain validity. It's precisely for that reason that slight falls or - as in our case - slight rises in numbers don't really mean much. Various factors play into the figures and there is a degree of statistical inaccuracy in how these figures are compiled.

However, there are still many interesting truths that can be derived from these annual surveys, especially when viewed over a period of years. It's pretty hard to deny that a fall from an average attendance of 100 down to an average of 60 is anything other than worrying! But even sharp rises and falls can disguise deeper changes in attendance patterns. For example, most people now come to Church less than they used to - by which I'm meaning so-called 'regulars'. Whereas there was a time when a 'regular member's would come every single Sunday apart from maybe one week per year (Bradford holiday week) when they'd be off to Morecambe or wherever! Nowadays people have far more holidays, take weekends away, miss weeks for family commitments or simply miss a Sunday for no apparent obvious reason. It isn't inaccurate to say that many 'regular' members will only be in Church on, say, 40 Sundays per year.

Clearly, if people who used to come 50 Sundays per year might now be coming for 40 Sundays per year, then that is going to result in something like a 20% fall in attendance figures if replicated across the Church - and yet nobody has actually 'left'. All the same people still come, but they just come less often!

So, changing social circumstances, new work patterns, different patterns of family life - these are just some of the reasons that negatively affect our statistics, and show that there is often a more complex pattern than might be seen from just a simple numerical count. And, of course it means that to actually have a (albeit, very small) rise in our numbers when attendance patterns are tending to go in the opposite direction shows that we are actually most likely experiencing some modest church growth. If you think about it, you have to be growing to even stand still, in an age when people are generally coming to church less.

My heads starting to hurt now with the number crunching! Suffice to say, that there are a few encouraging signs that are hidden within our bald statistics. Nothing to get too excited about, and certainly no cause for complacency - but reasons to be encouraged nonetheless...

Days Off

As I said in the previous blog post, I'm no great fan of 'New Year Resolutions'. That said, a New Year IS an opportunity to try and re-assess things, and to try and do a few things a bit differently.

One thing that I feel needed to be looked at was the whole concept of 'the Vicar's day off'. Now, at this point I'm sure many of you are thinking about the stereotypical line 'Don't Vicar's only work on a Sunday?' - but we don't really believe that, do we? Please tell me that we don't actually believe that old chestnut...hahaha.

Anyway, for anyone who forgot, my day off has always been Friday. I don't know its Friday - it's been Friday since I was ordained, and - to be honest - I think I'd find it odd to have any other day off now. We probably need a reminder that Friday is my day off since I've far too often ended up working some or all of Fridays. It is likely that some church members don't even know that Friday is meant to be my day off. And that's probably as much fault as anyone elses, to be honest...

From now onwards, I'm going to be redoubling my efforts to stick to Fridays off. I had a full day off this past Friday and really felt a lot better for it. So much so that I plan to be very strict about this from now on. That means no sermon prep, no admin, no funerals, no wedding rehearsals, no phone calls, no emailing, no answering the phone or the door. Nothingg. No exceptions.

I'd be really grateful if everyone would help here by not trying to circumnavigate things and get me to do things on Fridays. Being as soft-hearted as I am, I'd probably end up 'giving in' - and that's not good! I'm hoping that taking a regular day off will mean that I'm more effective and do a better job on the other six days - so, in the end, everybody wins out...

Thanks for listening and - don't worry - these weekly blog posts won't always be about me, me, me. Most of the time they'll be looking at wider issues in the Church, but this is just something I wanted to get off my chest.

Making New Year Resolutions?

To be honest, I’m not a great fan of ‘New Year Resolutions’. Those desperate promises to cut out chocolate or stick to a diet seem (to me, at least) to be more guaranteed to ensure guilt by the middle of January than achieving anything useful.

That said, I’d like to encourage everyone at St Cuthberts to make a very specific New Year Resolution for 2009......I’d like everyone to resolve to be in Church on each and every Sunday that they can possibly make it.

Now, you’re probably thinking, at this point : ‘But I am there every Sunday...’. Actually the statistics show that it isn’t the case. Our numbers dropped in 2008 - not by people leaving or anything, but by those of us who are members coming less often! One of the things that we have to do is to keep accurate numbers for every Sunday to send in to the Diocese, so we actually know exactly how many people were in St Cuthberts on any given Sunday!

The reality is that on every Sunday - quite apart from those who happen to be ill, or away on holiday, or have to work - there are a whole bunch of people who just don't show up. Are you among them? Maybe its time to have a bit of a think about priorities - about what really matters on a Sunday morning. After all, there is plenty of time in the rest of the week for cooking, or reading the papers or going to the shops! Why does this matter? Well, 1 Corinthians 12 makes is clear that when Christians rejoice we all rejoice together - and when we suffer, we suffer together. It’s about being a community that meets together regularly!

I've noticed that on those Sunday when everything falls into place and more or less everyone turns out at the same time, there are LOADS of really positive comments and great feedback. See, the fact is that we all enjoy being part of a large congregation of people worshipping Jesus. And by the same token, it always feels a bit fglat when there are rows of empty chairs. Do you see what I'm saying? If we all make the effort, then everyone benefits...including us!

So the next time your tempted by a car boot sale, a trip to the seaside, a trip to Tesco’s or simply a morning under the duvet, maybe we need to remember that God wants us to come together once each week (Hebrews 10.25) to worship Him and to meet with fellow Christians for encouragement and support.

Let’s resolve to only miss Church in 2009 if we are ill, on holiday or genuinely unable to come for a really, really good reason....